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 U.S. employment report 5/8/2011

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مُساهمةموضوع: U.S. employment report 5/8/2011   6/8/2011, 06:53

Today's employment report U.S. Non-Farm

Of the most important economic data today is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report of the agricultural sector. If the data came today to cover the impact on the rate of moderate growth in the employment sector in the largest economy in the world, it is likely that more investment heading towards the U.S. currency, which was almost impossible a few days ago. This is due to investors away from risk in times of tension in Europe.

Economic Analysis

U.S. Dollar

Rise of the U.S. dollar before the release of the report of the Employment Non-Farm
The direction of the EUR / USD to the level of 1.4130 in trading yesterday, as investors expect a return to risk aversion, but they feel optimistic about the U.S. employment report without the agricultural sector, which will be announced today. A high reading sector employment in the private sector on Wednesday defended the high rates of risk appetite among many investors, but concerns about infection from the European debt have covered this up. If a report of the U.S. employment without the agricultural sector in this direction of optimism, we may see a rise in the U.S. currency against the other rates, as traders returned to the traditional value stocks. In light of the European Central Bank keep interest rates unchanged, and the high employment in the U.S. private sector, it appears that the U.S. dollar is ready to rise against the currencies of high risk such as the euro, which fell in yesterday's trading session in the afternoon and evening meetings. Also retreated to the safety of gravity due to the intervention of banks in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, helping push the U.S. dollar during trading this week. Of the most important economic data today is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report of the agricultural sector. If the data came today to cover the impact on the rate of moderate growth in the employment sector in the largest economy in the world, it is likely that more investment heading towards the U.S. currency, which was almost impossible a few days ago. This is due to investors away from risk in times of tension in Europe.

Euro

European Central Bank keeps interest rate unchanged
The EUR saw a downward trend yesterday after the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged from 1.50%. The statement accompanying the resolution, which was announced after the announcement of the decision shortly reason to broadcast a state of pessimism among investors, as pointed out, "Jean-Claude Trichet," European Central Bank to be concerned about the debt in the region has returned the focus of attention again, especially concern about Spain, Italy, cuts credit ratings in the last period of the addressed either Moody's Investor Services. Move the EUR / USD strength in the downward trend yesterday as the high rates of risk aversion, which originated from the European interest rate statement. The price of this pair fell from the top level of a last resort when a 1.4370 to the lowest level at 1.4140 before bouncing a little higher. The euro has seen similar losses between 0.2% and 0.6% against other currencies. Does not include the data table the European economic lot of economic data today, as would be expected to advertise only on the report of the French trade balance at 7:45 GMT, followed by German industrial production report. It also will be announced from Italy for GDP for the third quarter of the year. It will be the focus of most investors on the U.S. employment report without the agricultural sector, which is one of the most influential reports of the global economy during this week.

Japanese Yen

Intervention of the Japanese yen is not enough to stop the rise in the yen
The Japanese Yen saw a moderate downward trend throughout the day trading after the Bank of Japan intervention in the forex market to lead the local currency against other major currencies. This was the procedure of the Bank of Japan as a result of the yen's rise beyond previous levels of intervention, as a result of rising risk aversion significantly in the global economy, which in turn is due to fears of a debt in Europe and the United States of America. Bank of Japan and tends to resist the force that gets the Japanese yen, due to their detrimental impact on Japanese exports. However, the weakness in commodity prices has helped to offset losses incurred by the Japanese yen, which was strong as a result of world opinion that a strong yen works keeper of value in times of instability. As a result of reports that Italy had been suffering from a deficit in the near future, and that Spain may follow suit, it appears that the focus on risk aversion seems inevitable. Thus, the exhibition of the Japanese yen continued to rise despite attempts by the Bank of Japan to prevent it. It will be worth monitoring to see whether the Bank of Japan will try to intervene in the market for the second time in the coming days.

Crude oil

Decline in crude oil prices towards the level of $ 90 a barrel
I found prices of crude oil, strong resistance on Thursday en route to the level of $ 90 a barrel in the last trading session, as it seems that there is a decline in the rates of confidence in demand in the global industrial sector. Has prompted many of the economic data, many British and European investors to return to safe assets, as reported most of the reports that the momentum of contraction between the major Western industrial countries to increase. If the validation, this will lead to lower oil prices to the bearish channel, and then will decrease the demand for more oil. With investors seeking a safe haven, may continue to the value of crude oil in that role before the close of trading today, after the fall he suffered during the week. Are expected to reduce investments in tangible assets due to the sudden rise in the dollar resulting from the sudden return to risk aversion in the markets, which led to the decline in oil prices more. If you continue these views as they are in the stability of the day, could see another drop in oil prices.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD
Appears on the weekly chart of the Japanese model Candles "drain" rally, has said the wrong line after the break the downward trend that extends from the highest levels recorded by the price in May and July. After the retreat from this line of resistance, formed candle "doji" reflexivity, which refers to the potential decline of the euro / dollar. It seems that the first support level is at 1.4025, which represents the moving average of two hundred days. The next level of 1.3930, which represents the moving average of two hundred days. There is also support at the trend line extending upward from the lowest level in May. On the upside, the price will be needed to maintain the level of 1.4580 for the continuation of the bearish technical picture. In the case of close above this level, you may test the 1.4700 level and price level of 1.4940.

GBP / USD
After three weeks of continuous rise of the British pound, the technical picture begins to change from bearish to bullish. The Pound rose above the level of resistance, which was supposed to repel any higher. The breach occurs first is a breakthrough line of the neck to form the head and shoulders at the level of 1.6185, while the breach occurs following the level of 1.6370, which is located at the former landed upside extending from the lowest level in May. At the present time, it will be the first level of resistance at the highest level of record on May 31 at 1.6550, followed by the highest level in April, at the 1.6745. In the case of lower GBP / USD, it is likely to test support at 1.6220, followed the previous trend line break and extending the highest level in April, which is now at 1.6140. In the case of breach of 1.6000 may extend towards the price level of 1.5780.

U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Yen strength came back strongly. The pair closed on a graph of the candles Japanese model of "bottom Almst" which indicates that the momentum is heading in the downward direction. The pair opened this week gap for the highest price, but the price has managed to survive under the short-term trend line extending from the highest level of record on July 20 and which is now at 78.05. There may be additional resistance at 79.60 and at 80.15, which represents the moving average of fifty-five days. Initial support is located at 76.70, the lowest level recorded last week, followed by the level of 76.11, its lowest level ever recorded, which in March. In the case of break of this level, the price will move to an area not reached by then was up to the psychological barrier at 75 and 70.

Dollar / Swiss Franc
The Swiss franc in the same situation as the Japanese yen, which tends to an area not reached by the graph, and there is still a tendency to sell, but it may be a gap opening up that appeared on Monday led to a model of "thief" reflex, which may lead to achieve some minor gains for the pair. The resistance level is at 0.8080 and 0.8275. In the case of rising above these levels, this may be the opportunity to sell to return to trend downward with a long-term target levels as large as 0.7800.
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مُساهمةموضوع: رد: U.S. employment report 5/8/2011   8/8/2011, 09:34

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U.S. employment report 5/8/2011
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